Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
